Bush, GOP Congress Losing Core Supporters
The WaPo has rightly claimed this and the reasons they gave are accurate: Conservatives Point to Spending, Immigration. Peggy Noonan also has a great piece in the WSJ, mirroring much of what the WaPo piece says:Baseless Confidence It may take a defeat in November for the GOP to unlearn the lessons of power.
From WaPo:
Disaffection over spending and immigration have caused conservatives to take flight from President Bush and the Republican Congress at a rapid pace in recent weeks, sending Bush’s approval ratings to record lows and presenting a new threat to the GOP’s 12-year reign on Capitol Hill, according to White House officials, lawmakers and new polling data.
Bush and Congress have suffered a decline in support from almost every part of the conservative coalition over the past year, a trend that has accelerated with alarming implications for Bush’s governing strategy.The Gallup polling organization recorded a 13-percentage-point drop in Republican support for Bush in the past couple of weeks. These usually reliable voters are telling pollsters and lawmakers they are fed up with what they see as out-of-control spending by Washington and, more generally, an abandonment of core conservative principles.
There are also significant pockets of conservatives turning on Bush and Congress over their failure to tighten immigration laws, restrict same-sex marriage, and put an end to the Iraq war and the rash of political scandals, according to lawmakers and pollsters.
Bush won two presidential elections by pursuing a political and governing model that was predicated on winning and sustaining the loyal backing of social, economic and foreign policy conservatives. The strategy was based on the belief that conservatives, who are often more politically active than the general public, could be inspired to vote in larger numbers and would serve as a reliable foundation for his presidency. The theory, as explained by Bush strategists, is that the president would enjoy a floor below which his support would never fall.
It is now apparent that this floor has weakened dramatically — and collapsed in places.
And From Peggy:
But it’s also true that the administration and the Congress are losing their base, and it isn’t because of the media. Republicans on the ground love to defy the MSM. When the media dislike their guy, they take it as proof their guy is good.
Of all the bad poll numbers for the Republicans, I think the worst is the right track/wrong track numbers, which continue to trend downward. A majority of the American people think we’re on the wrong track. How can this be when the American economy is in a boom? When the Dow Jones Industrial Average is approaching its all-time high, when annual growth is almost 5%, when unemployment is low, and so is inflation? (People don’t talk much about inflation anymore, but in the 1970s and early ’80s it was the thief in the night that kept America sleepless. They could almost feel the worth of their savings going down with each tick of the clock. It was more disruptive, more damaging to a sense of security, than street crime. It is a an unnoticed achievement that it has been so low so long.)
There are many reasons for the current unease. Not everything comes down to politics, not by a long shot. But part of it is politics.
As Captain Ed points out:
So what gave Bush traction among conservatives? The 9/11 attack and response, judicial appointments, and taxes. Conservatives have given him leeway in part because of his approach on these issues, and the lack of attractive alternatives in either party on these and other core issues. For those three areas of success, conservatives have endured the profligate spending and federal consolidation of power.
Now, however, Bush has gone more than one step too far on several fronts, and conservatives have finally allowed themselves to dissent. On immigration, which not only has long been a particular concern for conservatives but now more than ever has national-security implications, Bush has turned his back on the base in order to embrace the Democratic approach of amnesty rather than enforcement, even as a companion to normalization. He not only has consistently refused to rein in spending, declining to veto pork-laden bills, but continues to encourage ever-higher spending.
Predictably, as the money gets bigger the corruption follows, and the revelations of malfeasance have angered conservatives in their association with the GOP majorities in both houses of Congress. The 1994 “revolution” that brought Congress under Republican control based its approach on eliminating corruption from politics by reducing the spoils that lead to corruption. Now we have pork in every bill and not surprisingly corruption probes involving both parties as a result. This is not conservative governance; it’s pandering by manipulating tax receipts for political gain, and the process gets more and more blatant.
All is not gloom and doom and in no way am I suggesting that this situation can not be reversed. It is time for the leaders of the party to start listening to the base. Don’t nod your head in agreement and give lip service on the talk shows. Start acting on what we are telling you. Communicate with us honestly, and we will listen. Continue at the rate you are going and things will not look good in November!
