MAGAZINE SHOCK: REPUBLICANS WILL HOLD CONGRESS
BARRON’S COVER Survivor!
The GOP Victory
By JIM MCTAGUE
JUBILANT DEMOCRATS SHOULD RECONSIDER their order for confetti and noisemakers, BARRON’s claims in their next edition. The Democrats, as widely reported, are expecting GOP-weary voters to flock to the polls in two weeks and hand them control of the House for the first time in 12 years — and perhaps the Senate, as well. Even some Republicans privately confess that they are anticipating the election-day equivalent of Little Big Horn. Pardon our hubris, but we just don’t see it.
Our analysis — based on a race-by-race examination of campaign-finance data — suggests that the GOP will hang on to both chambers, at least nominally. We expect the Republican majority in the House to fall by eight seats, to 224 of the chamber’s 435. At the very worst, our analysis suggests, the party’s loss could be as large as 14 seats, leaving a one-seat majority. But that is still a far cry from the 20-seat loss some are predicting. In the Senate, with 100 seats, we see the GOP winding up with 52, down three.
Developing…
October 21, 2006 - 10:34 PM on October 21st, 2006
Everyone is guessing on election results. It makes for good discussion but you don’t see a head to head comparison of the predictions after the ballots are cast. You might see a report on a mistaken prediction like “Dewey Wins” but one that risky probably won’t be seen again.
I would rather see voter imposed term limits. Unless someone in office by most accounts does an outstanding job, they should be voted out after no more than two terms. The only citizens that reap any benefit from career politicians are those who likely should be in jail. Corruption in public office would seriously decline if only the voting public had the courage to vote incumbents out.
October 22, 2006 - 05:02 AM on October 22nd, 2006
1- We should have term limits, I agree with you. It is up to the states to pass this on ballot proposals, as we can’t count on the elected officials to limit their job terms. 12 years is more than enough time to get the job done!
October 22, 2006 - 09:13 AM on October 22nd, 2006
What we really need is salary limits. Cut pay for all elected officials by 2/3 and mandate any increases pass a voter referendum which must pass by 2/3 majority.
October 22, 2006 - 12:29 PM on October 22nd, 2006
Democratic
I will say though, that for me, the image of the Democrats bent over and squealing like pigs, is quite amusing. IF the Republicans maintain control of the house and the senate, we can be sure to see conspiracy theories and accusations being thrown ab…
October 22, 2006 - 06:00 PM on October 22nd, 2006
No one knows; but I think the Republicans will hold the House and the Senate.
However; I think the Republicans have really screwed themselves for 2008.
October 22, 2006 - 06:58 PM on October 22nd, 2006
4- I agree 110%. Then maybe they’ll actually start paying attention to their constituents as their number 1 priority.
October 22, 2006 - 07:58 PM on October 22nd, 2006
Just to be clear, I would not advocate term limit legislation, that’s what elections are for. And just for fun I predict the GOP retains the majority after this election. I heard someone this week mention a stat they heard. Don’t know if it was true but it amused me. The claim is most voters find something wrong with every politician except the one representing them. Therefore they vote to keep their own and bitch about everyone else’s representative. If true, I now understand why it is so difficult to vote the bums out.
October 22, 2006 - 08:14 PM on October 22nd, 2006
A prediction based only on the factor of money spent is a prediction not made considering all relevant factors. I don’t think it is the way to do this.
oh, and last I checked anyone was allowed to buy Baron Magazine. Not just the “elitist rich folks”. To say such is ignorant.
I agree with term limits, however neither party advocates this.
My prediction: The Dems will take the house, the Reps will keep the Senate. President Bush may find his Veto pen. In ‘08, the Reps will win simply because the Dems will once again have no legitimate candidate.
“What we really need is salary limits. Cut pay for all elected officials by 2/3 and mandate any increases pass a voter referendum which must pass by 2/3 majority.”
SAy what? This will have absolutely no effect on anything. Most national public office holders do not rely on their Congressional salries.
October 23, 2006 - 12:17 AM on October 23rd, 2006
“In ‘08, the Reps will win simply because the Dems will once again have no legitimate candidate.”
No…
One word:
Obama.
October 23, 2006 - 12:25 AM on October 23rd, 2006
“I predict the GOP retains the majority after this election.”
Possibly. But probably not.
It’s looking pretty grim for your team…
October 23, 2006 - 05:51 AM on October 23rd, 2006
10. with all the media hoopla surrounding obama, I have yet to hear WHY he is such a star or WHAT he has actually done to warrant such adulation. Mybe you can fill me in.
Aaron V
October 23, 2006 - 06:53 AM on October 23rd, 2006
13- He is a rising black star in the party..all they need to know is that he is black…Sadly, that is his claim to fame, from the Democratic part’s perspective…he needs to stay in the Senate to accomplish somethings before being able to be taken seriously for his brains…
October 23, 2006 - 04:41 PM on October 23rd, 2006
Re 10:
“No
ne word: Obama.”
I stand by my statement. He will be ready in 2012, but not 2008. The only thing that may prevent this is the self destructive tendancy that all candidates seem to have these days. I may vote for him if he keeps the partisan rhetoric to little or nothing and demonstrates in his vote a sensible approach to governement.
Re 12:
“if you don’t think the overwhelming majority of Baron’s readers aren’t republicans who have a vested interest in keeping the status quo, which is government by corporate interest, you are drowning in your own delusions.”
There are two problems with this statement:
1) If you can find emperical evidence to support the assertion that the “overwhelming majority” of Baron’s readers are Republicans then by all means please provide it. but I have news for you: there are just as many rich Democrats as there are Republicans.
This is ignornat because it perpetuates a stereotype. Stereotypes are based on ignorance.
2) Not only do Republicans have a vested interest in keeping the status quo of governemnt by corporate interest, but so do Democrats. Thus, your statement is irrelevant.
“you used the word ignorant. you always seemed like a thoughtful fellow so i won’t call you ignorant as you did me.”
I used the word not as an insult, but as a matter of fact on the issue. You based your opinion not on emperical evidence but on a stereotype. It is like saying the over welming majority of Democrats are godless.
October 23, 2006 - 07:06 PM on October 23rd, 2006
“He is a rising black star in the party..all they need to know is that he is black:”
Honestly, I wasn’t even thinking about that.
“I have yet to hear WHY he is such a star or WHAT he has actually done to warrant such adulation. Mybe you can fill me in.”
I’m talking about how he is a breath of fresh air from our usual group of stale-air politicians. He’s young, he’s down to earth…read some of his speeches. He’s a pretty interesting guy.
October 23, 2006 - 07:15 PM on October 23rd, 2006
I agree that he is interesting and intelligent, but 2 years in the senate does not make you a presidential candidate…I also feel that he is a breath of fresh air, but I would be surprised if he does run in 08′. He has done nothing spectacular nor shown any great leadership, yet he is the best looking candidate for 08′….Why? The alternative is Hillary.