The estimate comes from projections by the World Health Organization and the Iraqi government, based on door-to-door surveys of nearly 10,000 households. Experts called it the largest and most scientific study of the Iraqi death toll since the war began.

The new estimate covers a period from the start of the war in March 2003 through June 2006. It closely mirrors the tally Iraq’s health minister gave in late 2006, based on 100 bodies a day arriving at morgues and hospitals. His number shocked people in and outside Iraq, because it was so much higher than previously accepted estimates.

I would ask that you take the time to re-read this post in order to see what is wrong with that figure of 10,000 people interviewed..

More coverage at Memeorandum

4 Responses to “best effort yet to count deaths: 151,000 Iraqis died in 3 years after U.S. invasion”

1. PCD
   January 10, 2008 - 06:57 AM on January 10th, 2008

   First of all, this comes from the UN which is known for bad information and hatred of the US and the invasion.

   Second, no mention of the interviewing standards and just how long each interview took.

   Third, no verification of the deaths reported by family members. Remember back when we were trying to buy goodwill, Iraqis realizing the good deal rushed to report false claims which were paid on the spot without verification.

2. Pam
   January 10, 2008 - 07:33 AM on January 10th, 2008

   ding ding ding ding ding! I have a winner. 10,000 people interviewed? how, when, where, what was asked?

   The estimate is based on interviews conducted in 9345 households in nearly 1000 neighbourhoods and villages across Iraq. The researchers emphasize that despite the large size of the study, the uncertainty inherent in calculating such estimates led them to conclude that the number of Iraqis who died from violence during that period lies between 104 000 and 223 000.

   “Assessment of the death toll in conflict situations is extremely difficult and household survey results have to be interpreted with caution,” said study co-author Mohamed Ali, a WHO statistician who provided technical assistance for the survey. “However, in the absence of comprehensive death registration and hospital reporting, household surveys are the best we can do.”

   “Our survey estimate is three times higher than the death toll detected through careful screening of media reports by the Iraq Body Count project and about four times lower than a smaller-scale household survey conducted earlier in 2006,” added Naeema Al Gasseer, the WHO Representative to Iraq.

   The study found that violence became a leading cause of death for Iraqi adults after March 2003 and the main cause for men aged 15-59 years. It indicated that on average 128 Iraqis per day died of violent causes in the first year following the invasion and that the average daily violent death toll was 115 in the second year and 126 in the third year. More than half of the violent deaths occurred in Baghdad.

   “Some homes could not be visited because of high levels of insecurity and more people move residence in times of conflict. These factors were taken into account in the analysis as they may affect the accuracy of the survey work,” said Salih Mahdi Motlab Al-Hasanawi, Minister of Health of Iraq. “Nonetheless, the survey results indicate a massive death toll since the beginning of the conflict.”
   Besides deaths, the Iraq Family Health Survey tracked health indictors such as pregnancy history, mental health status, chronic illnesses, smoking habits, sexually transmitted infections, domestic violence and heath-care spending patterns.

   Another notable finding of the survey was that a worryingly low 57% of the women surveyed said they had heard of AIDS. That compares with 84% of women in Turkey and Egypt, 91% in Morocco and 97% in Jordan.

   So did they ask if anyone died from the war? How about Aids? Thanks, have a good day!

3. FrmrArtyOffcr
   January 10, 2008 - 11:36 PM on January 10th, 2008

   I can give you at least one big problem with it without reading more than the excerpt. What is to keep a decedent from being reported by more than one household and thereby counted repeatedly?

   There is also the matter of how many were killed by coalition military actions versus how many died as a result of terorist attacks, how many died of other causes, and how many would’ve died anyway under the Hussein regime?

4. Robert
   January 11, 2008 - 08:42 AM on January 11th, 2008

   Maybe they fed all the data into the same computer model that predicts the Ocean level will rise 30 feet in the next 20 years due to human-caused Global Warming…

Leave a Reply

Name (required)

Mail (will not be published) (required)

Website

Right Voices uses Gravatar to display individual comment author icons. If you'd like your own icon next to your name, then go to Gravatar.com and sign up - it's easy!

more »

Notify me of followup comments via e-mail