Democrats may not have been in a weaker position at convention time since 1984.
As Russian tanks rolled into the Republic of Georgia and the presidential candidates met over the weekend in the first joint issues forum of the fall campaign, the latest polling includes drama almost as compelling – Republican John McCain has taken a five-point lead over Democrat Barack Obama in the race for President, the latest Reuters/Zogby telephone survey shows.
McCain leads Obama by a 46% to 41% margin.
And McCain not only enjoys a five-point edge in a two-way race against Obama, but also in a four-way contest including liberal independent candidate Ralph Nader and Libertarian Bob Barr, the poll reveals. In the four-way contest, McCain wins 44% support, Obama 39%, Barr 3% and Nader 2%.
This latest Reuters/Zogby poll is a dramatic reversal from the identical survey taken last month – in the July 9-13 Reuters/Zogby survey, Obama led McCain, 47% to 40%. In the four-way race last month, Obama held a 10-point lead over McCain.
Ed reminds us to to take Zogby with a grain of salt but adds:
Zogby’s internals show this change across almost every demographic, too. Obama lost nine points among Democrats. He lost 11 poinst among Catholics, college graduates, Southerners, and city-dwellers, where he has dropped below 50% ” a stunning result. Obama dropped 12 points among voters under 35, another power base for his campaign, and seven points among those earning under $50,000 a year.
Others blogging:
- Swamp Hermit’s *QUICK* Bits « The Swamp Hermit’s Report
- ScoopThis.Org » John McCain is up by 5 points!
- The Other McCain: ZOGBY: McCAIN 46%, OBAMA 41%
August 20, 2008 - 08:53 AM on August 20th, 2008
No worries, yet.
Plenty of time left in the game, haven’t even had the conventions.
Also, McCain could end up chosing a pro-choice VP; and we all know how the fundy evangelicals would like that.
August 20, 2008 - 11:13 AM on August 20th, 2008
I dunno, SFL. I’d start worrying if I was an Obama fan. He has done nothing but go down over the last few months. Even his vaunted Presidential tour of Europe not only didn’t help, it hurt. The more most people get to know Obama the less they like him.
It really does seem to be true that the best thing he had going for him at the start was a fresh face, a new approach, and his being an unknown.
August 20, 2008 - 11:17 AM on August 20th, 2008
Additionally, let me point out that Obama has a 3:1 advantage in air time thanks to the MSM. Everything he does gets televised. Everything McCain does is ignored unless he pointedly calls for a press conference.
This is a blessing and a curse. When you’re as naive, clueless, and inexperienced as Obama the best thing you could do is hide from the press or you end up believing your own rhetoric and looking like an ass. However if he had anything resembling a coherent domestic or foreign policy plan he’d probably be well ahead by now.
Angry D.
http://angryd.livejournal.com