UPDATED: It’s not over. But it’s getting there ” and Obama knows it…UPDATE:Florida, Pennsylvania breaking for McCain
Obviously there are miles to go before it’s over, but this is a very telling article:
Panic sets in for Obama, Democrats
Democrats know something, and desperation is setting in. They have a novice campaigner who wanders off message. With every advantage in the primaries, Obama couldn’t win the big states ” New York, New Jersey, Ohio and Pennsylvania ” against Hillary Clinton, even when he got to define the rules for running against him. She could never risk alienating the base she’ll need in 2012; John McCain and Sarah Palin have no such constraints ” hence the panic.
For a “change” candidate, Obama appears to be a man locked in time, unable to move past criticism, unable to move from the grip of the Democratic left, unable to adapt to the changed reality that the campaign is not the referendum on the war in Iraq or on the administration of George W. Bush that he’d envisioned.
He’s begun to sound dated. Last week, for example, he devoted valuable campaign days ” less than two months remain ” into explaining a silly “lipstick on a pig” line. The McCain campaign had reacted, accusing him of making the reference to Palin. “I don’t care what they say about me,” Obama responded. “But I love this country too much to let them take over another election with lies and phony outrage and ‘Swiftboat politics.’ Enough is enough,” he said. (The Swiftboat reference is from the 2004 campaign of John Kerry).
The Democratic left is still seething from the Kerry campaign’s loss and is determined to see Bush expelled from the White House in disgrace ” the reason it is locked in to making this a referendum on the administration now ending.
It barely worked when the maverick McCain, no darling of the Bushites, got the nomination. With Palin, the Washington outsider, the “third term” argument is plainly absurd. But Obama can’t let go, just as the lefties can’t let go of the Swiftboat Veterans for Truth defeat of Kerry. He can’t move on.
Obama has the habit, too, of reminding voters of their doubts about him, as he did in reminding a Detroit audience that he’s been accused of being less interested in protecting you from terrorists than reading them their rights. And, when he professes love of country as his basis for refusing to allow the McCain campaign to attack his words, he raises questions about why he finds the affirmation of love necessary.
Obama will lose because with less than two months remaining voters won’t be able to get comfortable with him. He can’t stay on message and he can’t avoid sending signals that interfere with the message when he does.
McCain, on the other hand, has been superb going back at least to Obama’s European tour. Mainstream America is comfortable with him and, with Palin’s selection, conservatives who had their doubts are onboard. The GOP is energized and suddenly an unwinnable election is reversed.
Obama got this far by winning small states and Southern states he has no chance of carrying in November. In Georgia, for example, the latest Insider Advantage poll has McCain pulling 56 percent of the vote to 38 percent for Obama, numbers that are not likely to change more than 4 percentage points in November. The undecideds and those who intend to vote for third-party campaigns are at 6 percent.
Didn’t Hillary warn the Democratic leadership, base and super delegates, that Obama could not win in November based on the primaries he won? Those caucus votes mean nothing in a general election, and as Wooten points out:
Obama couldn’t win the big states ” New York, New Jersey, Ohio and Pennsylvania ” against Hillary Clinton, even when he got to define the rules for running against him.
Florida may be falling from Obama’s grasp
And Pennsylvania? According to Zogby, Obama is down by five:
Updated: 9/13/2008
Summary:
McCain – 49.1%
Obama – 44.3%
Not Sure/Other – 6.6%“This is a classic case of polling as a snapshot in time. We’re turning Pennsylvania purple today, as McCain takes a small edge. But as in Ohio, we are watching this closely and things could change in this classically blue state.”
And in Ohio, Zogby now puts McCain ahead of Obama by six, a substantial enough margin to move the state from purple to red. Zogby, of course, is one of the more volatile pollsters, so any results here should be taken with a grain of salt. However, if McCain takes Pennsylvania and holds Ohio and Florida, it will be difficult for Obama to prevail in a national election.
Others blogging:
September 13, 2008 - 01:01 PM on September 13th, 2008
Hmmm…another anti-obama opinion piece coming from a conservative commentator?
Come the f*ck on…there is no “panic”.
Just the other day Pres. Bill Clinton went as far to say that Sen. Obama will win handily in Nov.
Does that sound like panic?
I don’t think so…
There’s PLENTY of time left in the game. (!)
September 13, 2008 - 01:50 PM on September 13th, 2008
Actually, that Clinton meeting is what showed the desperation…I agree that this is a long way from being done, which I said in my post, but Obama is not looking too good right now!
September 13, 2008 - 04:16 PM on September 13th, 2008
If Bill Clinton said that, then we KNOW it MUST be the truth!
The panic, SFL, is evidenced by the amount of time and resources they and their MSM propagandists are putting into attacking Palin. This is absolutely unprecedented; that the opposition POTUS candidate is now running against his opponent’s VP choice. Absolutely unprecedented.
Except for his supporters, Obama’s air of fresh, new, change has been upstaged by palin, who is all that plus REAL. And the more that comes out about Obama, the less comfortable the middle of the road, the average voters are with him. Add to that the choice of Biden, who is an old hack, that did absolutely nothing positive for Obama. And Palin has energized the Conservative base, which might have sat this one out.
None of those are good for Obama. Unless something big happens soon, the good ship Obama is taking on water and listing to Port. It looks as though it’ll sink in November.
September 13, 2008 - 04:35 PM on September 13th, 2008
Plus, I can’t wait to see the debates. McCain might be less animated than Obama but he is confident in his words. He knows what the score is and there are not alot of uh’s and ah’s and dragging the conversation out so no more questions can be asked.
And Palin, my goodness, she just rocks with her style and yes she is prepared as well.
SFL, you better hold onto your seats cuz this ones going to be good.
September 13, 2008 - 08:28 PM on September 13th, 2008
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September 13, 2008 - 08:36 PM on September 13th, 2008
[...] Right Voices: Didn’t Hillary warn the Democratic leadership, base and super delegates, that Obama could [...]
September 13, 2008 - 10:03 PM on September 13th, 2008
BonBon I can’t wait to see the debates either. -I’d love to see Hurricane Sarah devastate Biden. He’s such a rich target; he’s been wrong for 20 years on virtually every foreign policy matter of any significance. I’d love to be on Palin’s prep team. It would be so much fun. I’d also like to write some of her speeches. She had a lot of home runs in her RNC acceptance speech, but the one I thought was especially pure genius was the one about the styrofoam greek columns. It said so much, it was so rich, so perfect it was genius.
September 14, 2008 - 01:58 AM on September 14th, 2008
Far from panic, the Obama campaign is firmly in control. They are letting this initial excitement over Palin run its course and dissipate, which it will well before the election. As the truth comes out about the book banning, Troopergate, Palin’s crusade to impose extremist Xtian standards on Alaskans, and the many, many other scandals just waiting will completely turn off these voters who are paying attention to her now out of curiosity only.
Obama has them right where he wants them. Obama is so superior, so brilliant, he knows exactly what he’s doing. Obama hasn’t even begun to campaign. It will be a historic landslide win for Obama. Even the usual massive organized Union-based voter fraud the Republicans do in the large cities won’t be enough to help them. Their tactics like promising elderly people free sandwiches and juice to vote Republican won’t help. Busing undocumented workers around from precinct to precinct won’t help them. And their vanadalism, like vandalising Obama yard signs and vehicles displaying Obama bumper stickers, won’t be enough either. And trying to steal the election like they did in 2000 and 2004, disenfranchising African Americans and the poor, won’t be enough to help them either!
Obama in a landslide! Or I’m leaving the country!
September 14, 2008 - 09:02 AM on September 14th, 2008
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September 14, 2008 - 01:46 PM on September 14th, 2008
Hurricane Sarah…I love it. But you are wrong on one foreign policy issue Robert. Senator Biden put his name on a letter to Billy Boy in 1998 begging him to take Saddam out. The letter had lots of other familiar names on it as well (J. Kerry). They are all hypocrites.
Go McCain/Palin…oh and DA, get ready to leave the country. We don’t need people like you here anyway.