Right Voices

Are any of you really surprised by this?

BOOSTED by the selection of Sarah Palin as his running mate, Republican John McCain has experienced a surge of support among women in heavily Democratic New York state – where he has closed the gap with Barack Obama, new private polls show.

The internal Republican and Democratic polls, details of which were provided to The Post, have stunned members of both parties – and produced deep worries among Democrats. :

The private polls have consistently shown the Obama-Biden ticket still leading but with less than 50 percent of the vote in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans by over 2.3 million voters.

From the Siena poll of likely voters in New York:

Seven weeks until Election Day, the race for President has tightened in New York, with Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) leading Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) 46-41 percent among likely voters, according to a new Siena (College) Research Institute poll released today.  Obama’s five point lead is down from eight points in August, 13 points in July and 18 points in June, when he led 51-33 percent.  On a series of  six questions concerning current issues in the campaign – economy, Iraq, terrorism, health care, America’s position in the world, and education – likely voters believe Obama will do a better job on four.  Conversely, out of six attributes voters often look at in choosing a candidate – compassion, patriotism, experience, intelligence, integrity, and leadership – New York’s electorate gives the edge to McCain on four.

“Although New York has long been regarded as a ‘safe’ state for the Democrats in presidential politics, likely voters in the Empire State are currently only giving Senator Obama a five-point cushion,” said Steven Greenberg, spokesman for the Siena New York Poll.  “The conventions are over.  The running mates are set.  And as voters begin to focus on the race, New York’s overwhelming Democratic enrollment advantage is not reflected in how voters tell Siena they plan to vote.”

He has lost 18 point since June!

Ed:

If Obama loses his grip on New York, he can’t possibly win the election.  If he has to sink a large amount of money in New York, he’ll have to take it from his efforts in battleground states, and he’ll have to cut his face time in places like Michigan, Ohio, Colorado, and Minnesota. That’s a recipe for defeat, both financially and electorally.

Just a week ago, his campaign shrugged off the national polls by asserting that the state polls were what counted.  As this shows, the national polls provide a pretty good barometer about what one can expect in the states.  If New York becomes a toss-up, Obama can kiss his White House aspirations good-bye.

Others blogging:

• JammieWearingFool
• discarded lies – hyperlinkopotamus
• Exurban League
• Is New York in play? « Internet Scofflaw
• Obama leads McCain 48% to 45% among likely voters in NJ « The Political Page
• New York in play?
• Public Secrets
• NY’s turning light blue: Obama 46%, McCain 41% « The Political Page
• UNCoRRELATED
• McCain Down 5 ” in NEW YORK : Bweinh!
• Argghhh! The Home Of Two Of Jonah’s Military Guys..