IBD/TIPP: Obama +2, under 50%
The only poll to get 2004 correct is showing a much closer national race than almost every other poll:
The race tightened again Sunday as independents who’d been leaning to Obama shifted to McCain to leave that key group a toss-up. McCain also pulled even in the Midwest, moved back into the lead with men, padded his gains among Protestants and Catholics, and is favored for the first time by high school graduates.
Ed:
The internals are interesting, but the topline results show two potentially disturbing trends for Obama. First, Obama has never gotten to 50% in the TIPP poll, and now has dropped below 47%. A Democrat hasn’t won 50% of the vote in decades, and Obama may have the same problem John Kerry had in 2004. Related to that is the high level of undecideds. Almost 9% still have not made up their minds about the election, and as I wrote earlier today, that bodes ill for Obama. If he hasn’t made the sale with this group by now, it’s likely that most of them will wind up in McCain’s column on Tuesday.
How do we know this? Independents have begun to break for McCain. McCain now leads 45-43. A week ago, Obama led 43-38 with 19% undecided. The entire 7% that has come out of the undecided column in that period have gone to McCain, and 12% of them still have to make up their minds. Interestingly, slightly more Democrats than Republicans are undecided ” not good news for Obama.
I wouldn’t be so quick to call him the President Elect just yet! Just remember this from 2006:
Credit where it’s due: He had the spreads in both races almost right. He just, um, got the winners and losers wrong.
Some of you may have noticed.
About California: Some of you may have noticed our pre-election polling differed from the actual results. It appears that we underestimated Hispanic turnout and overestimated the importance of younger Hispanic voters. We also overestimated turnout among African-American voters. Those of you who have been following our work know that we have gotten 13 out of 17 races right this year, and so many others over the years. This does happen.
Exit question: Papa Bear says he’s learned his lesson and will drink no more from the well of Zogby. Blogospheric boycott too?
Meryl makes a good case for ignoring the polls and voting McCain
Linked with:
- IBD/TIPP: Obama +2, under 50% : Stop The ACLU
- MishMashZone » IBD/TIPP Poll: Obama +2 Under 50%
- Pew Poll: McCain Narrows Obama Lead To Six Points
- The Irascible Chef » Maybe, Yogi Could Phrase it Better:
- Anti-Idiotarian Rottweiler » Take That, Eeyores (UPDATED)
November 2, 2008 - 07:20 PM on November 2nd, 2008
Extrapolate the recorded move in (Obama leaning!) undecideds to Pennsylvania – where McCain / Palin have closed to 4% (within the margin of error) and there are 9% undecided. It’s still a longshot but a good bet IMO that McCain / Palin have the McMentum and will stun (devastate) the pundits and media with an electoral college victory on Tuesday night. GOTV!
November 2, 2008 - 07:27 PM on November 2nd, 2008
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November 2, 2008 - 07:40 PM on November 2nd, 2008
Let’s hope so Steven
November 2, 2008 - 08:59 PM on November 2nd, 2008
Sorry Republicans. The Democrat’s actually got a good person this time. Not a pile of dog crap like Senator Kerry.
November 3, 2008 - 12:14 AM on November 3rd, 2008
A good person? Someone who has the lie about and hide his past? Someone who refuses to prove he is even a U.S. citizen? Someone who is the clear choice of America’s enemies? Someone who steered a $1M earmark to his wife’s employer, after which she got a $150,000 annual raise? Someone who could never get a security clearance being entrusted with our highest National Security secrets and decisions? Someone who invested heavily in defeat in Iraq?
He may not be a turd like Kerry, but imo he simply cannot be trusted. And btw “redistribution of wealth’ is a core tenet of Marxism. If it talks like a duck…
November 3, 2008 - 06:26 AM on November 3rd, 2008
It may talk like a duck, but it’s about to be your President.
Relax though. He’s not the crazy left wing nut the Republican Party has been making him out to be.
November 3, 2008 - 09:57 AM on November 3rd, 2008
How do you know? How can you be sure? Nobody but Obama and his core associates know for sure. The rest of us have to go by, as I’ve said before, his record, his actions, and his associations.
You have not dealt with any of the points I posted above, all of which are very negative indicators/issues. Yet you are so assured. How can that be?
November 3, 2008 - 03:40 PM on November 3rd, 2008
How many of you believe that, as far as the African American population is concerned, this presidential race seems to be primarily about race? Here in New York City I haven’t come across a single black who is NOT voting for Obama.
November 3, 2008 - 04:22 PM on November 3rd, 2008
You all must be smoking grass or some other drug. The Mason Dixon Polls show the race tightening and every other poll shows Obama’s lead growing. What makes you think Mason Dixon is more correct and every other poll is wrong. Zogby, who showed the National Race tightening to within the margin of error ten days ago now shows a double digit Obama lead, and shows a double digit lead in Pennsylvania. Obama will win every Kerry State, plus Iowa, Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico. Additionally, he will win Ohio and Virginia. He can afford to lose North Carolina, Indiana, and Missouri. It’s over. Get ready to hear the Fat Lady Sing. And then you dolts can spend the next eight years continuing your form of mental masturbation.